Is Filip Hrgovic Being Overlooked Against Moses Itauma?

We’ve all seen the promotional material. Moses Itauma is set to become the second-youngest Heavyweight world champion on August 29. He’s going to be crowned the youngest British Heavyweight world champion in history. Filip Hrgovic, meanwhile, is being treated as little more than an afterthought.

For us, this is unfair. Hrgovic comes into this fight as one of the top ten Heavyweights in the world – in fact, we actually placed Hrgovic higher than Itauma in our most recent top ten Heavyweight rankings.

Make no mistake – Hrgovic is an excellent boxer. He has only suffered defeat once in the professional ranks, when he was stopped by Daniel Dubois on cuts in 2024. Dubois is now arguably the best Heavyweight on the planet, after Oleksandr Usyk relinquished his world titles.

As such, while many choose to highlight this as a black mark on his record, it really shouldn’t be treated as such. Furthermore, it’s worth remembering that Hrgovic was in control for much of that fight until Dubois’ propensity to lead with his head opened up a gash on his eyebrow.

Today, we’ll give Hrgovic a fair shake. Of course, he is the betting underdog for a reason, but he certainly isn’t a lame duck. According to Oddschecker, the bookies have Hrgovic at an average of 7/1 to beat Itauma – let’s see if this is fair.

How can Filip Hrgovic beat Moses Itauma?

Hrgovic has some excellent tools in his arsenal that could overwhelm Itauma. For starters, at 6ft 6 and with a wingspan of 82 inches, he is the larger man in the fight by a decent margin. Itauma stands at 6ft 4 and has a reach of 79 inches.

He needs to keep his jab active to prevent Itauma from consistently finding his way onto the inside. This is much easier said than done, but Hrgovic’s high output will keep the 21-year-old honest.

Hrgovic cannot afford to let Itauma push him back onto the ropes. He is a typically front-foot fighter who likes to control the centre of the ring whenever possible – he doesn’t excel on the back foot.

With that being said, we’ve seen that Itauma can fire off dangerous counter-punches when moving backwards, albeit briefly against Mike Balogun.

It’s hard to pick a weakness in Itauma’s approach at the moment because of how little pressure he has been put under thus far. His speed and timing are both excellent, but we haven’t seen him utilise his jab much.

Therefore, Hrgovic’s lengthy lead hand will be the key to victory in this one, as well as his accurate right cross. He shouldn’t be too liberal with it, as this could give Itauma an opening to counter, but we haven’t seen how durable Itauma’s chin is yet.

If Hrgovic can find a rhythm, firing off his jab and his right hand at opportune moments, Itauma could be in serious trouble. ‘El Animal’ is relentless when his opponents are hurt.

Analysing Hrgovic’s best wins

Over the last few years, Hrgovic has become very familiar with British audiences. All four of his last few opponents have been from the UK.

His win over David Adeleye, while he was expected to emerge victorious, was impressive. In that fight, Hrgovic showed us the full extent of how rock-solid his chin is.

Dominating most of the bout, he opened himself up after Adeleye was knocked down, allowing the Londoner to unload on him with a barrage of damaging hooks. Hrgovic took every single one of them without leaving his feet and took home a wide unanimous decision.

Joe Joyce was past his best when he fought ‘El Animal’, but it still stands out as a decent name on his resume. Hrgovic was far too quick for the ‘Juggernaut’ and landed some brutal shots on his iron chin, but was given a bit of trouble by Joyce’s indomitable work rate along the way.

Nevertheless, Hrgovic’s superior ring IQ and far greater hand speed won the day. He was cut around the eye early on in this fight – a running theme in his bouts since the Dubois loss.

To date, Hrgovic’s most impressive win – both on paper and in practice – was against Zhilei Zhang. Many thought Zhang won this one – understandable, given how close it was.

Still, this was a typical performance from Zhang. He had plenty of success, but wasn’t able to sustain it throughout the rounds to win enough of them. He officially scored a knockdown over Hrgovic in Round One, but many felt it was dubious as Zhang pulled his head down after the blow had landed.

Even still, Hrgovic’s chin must be commended. Zhang is one of the biggest punchers in boxing history – to take some of his blows without any sort of give requires near-superhuman punch resistance. If Itauma can knock Hrgovic out, it will be an almighty statement.

The verdict

All in all, while Hrgovic’s chances certainly can’t be discarded, we can see where the bookies are coming from. One of his key weaknesses lies in his leaky defence, which one simply cannot afford against a puncher as accurate and as brutal as Itauma.

Hrgovic will do what he can to prevent him from closing the distance, but he won’t be able to do it for 12 rounds. Once Itauma finds an opening, he can be very creative in his punch selection. He often throws punches from weird angles that Hrgovic will not see coming.

The Croatian will be motivated – make no mistake about that. He has been chasing a world title for years, so he will not throw this opportunity to the wind.

It’s likely he’ll sustain a cut at some point, given how susceptible he has become to them. If his vision becomes impaired, he’ll turn into a sitting duck.

Even if he can battle through this, it’s unlikely he’ll be allowed to continue for long with a gaping facial wound. We think a stoppage is on the cards, probably within the middle rounds.

EB OFFICIAL PREDICTION: Moses Itauma by 6th Round TKO